Showing posts with label moving averages. Show all posts
Showing posts with label moving averages. Show all posts

Saturday, January 15, 2022

How to make profit from using Swing Trading technique

 



Meaning & Definition

Swing Trading is a strategy that focuses on taking smaller gains in short term trends and cutting losses quicker. The gains might be smaller, but done consistently over time they can compound into excellent annual returns. Swing Trading positions are usually held a few days to a couple of weeks, but can be held longer.


How Swing Trading works for traders

Swing trading seeks to capitalize on the upward and downward “swings” in the price of a security. Traders hope to capture small moves within a larger overall trend. Swing traders aim to make a lot of small wins that add up to significant returns. For example, other traders may wait five months to earn a 25% profit, while swing traders may earn 5% gains weekly and exceed the other trader’s gains in the long run.

Most swing traders use daily charts (like 60 minutes, 24 hours, 48 hours, etc.) to choose the best entry or exit point. However, some may use shorter time frame charts, such as 4-hour or hourly charts.

Let's start with the basics of a swing trading strategy. Rather than targeting 20% to 25% profits for most of your stocks, the profit goal is a more modest 10%, or even just 5% in tougher markets. Those types of gains might not seem to be the life-changing rewards typically sought in the stock market, but this is where the time factor comes in.

The swing trader's focus isn't on gains developing over weeks or months; the average length of a trade is more like 5 to 10 days. In this way, you can make a lot of small wins, which will add up to big overall returns. If you are happy with a 20% gain over a month or more, 5% to 10% gains every week or two can add up to significant profits.

Of course, you still have to factor in losses. Smaller gains can only produce growth in your portfolio if losses are kept small. Rather than the normal 7% to 8% stop loss, take losses quicker at a maximum of 3% to 4%. This will keep you at a 3-to-1 profit-to-loss ratio, a sound portfolio management rule for success. It's a critical component of the whole system since an outsized loss can quickly wipe away a lot of progress made with smaller gains.


Swing Trades vs. Day Trading

Swing trading and day trading appear similar in some respects. The main factor differentiating the two techniques is the holding position time. While swing traders may hold stocks overnight to several weeks, day trades close within minutes or before the close of the market.

Day traders do not hold their positions overnight. It often means they avoid subjecting their positions to risks resulting from news announcements. Their more frequent trading results in higher transaction costs, which can substantially decrease their profits. They often trade with leverage in order to maximize profits from small price changes.

Swing traders are subjected to the unpredictability of overnight risks that may result in significant price movements. Swing traders can check their positions periodically and take action when critical points are reached. Unlike day trading, swing trading does not require constant monitoring since the trades last for several days or weeks.

Most Used Swing Trading Indicators

1. Moving Averages

Moving averages are simply the average of the stock prices over a given period and smoothen out any erratic short-term spikes.

They are referred to as the lagging indicators as they don’t look back over past price action.  Thus, Moving Averages are mainly used for confirming trends and used in swing trading.




Moving Averages can be categorized into short-, medium- or long-term, based on the number of the periods such as 50- or 200-days moving average. 

Moving Averages are mainly of two types :

Simple moving averages, which take all the closing prices of a specific period and averages them out, and Exponential moving averages that give more weightage to the price which is closer to the current date.

Having discussed the basics of moving average, let’s see the use of this indicator in swing trading :

Swing traders use moving averages when a market’s short-term Moving Average crosses a longer-term Moving Average indicating that a change in momentum is taking place. When a faster Moving Average crosses a slower Moving Average from below then it indicates a bull move. When a faster Moving Average crosses a slower one from above, then the momentum may be reversing to a bearish move.


2. Volume

Volume is an important indicator in swing trading as it tells us about the strength of the ongoing trend. Usually, a trend with high volume is stronger than one with weak volume. As more traders buy or sell, it forms a better basis for the price action. 




Volume is crucial when there is a breakout in the trend. Generally, breakouts follow a period of consolidation accompanied by low volume. So, when the breakout occurs then volume spikes.

There are different types of volume indicators that signal whether the volume is rising or falling in the stock.



3. Relative Strength Index

Momentum Indicators are popular among the swing traders and especially Relative Strength Index, which shows whether the stock’s prices are in overbought or the oversold zone.

Usually, when the prices are above the 70 levels, then we considered it in the overbought zone, on the other hand when the prices are below the 30 levels, it is considered to be an oversold zone.




When the prices are in the overbought zone, it usually indicates the prices may reverse to the downtrend, and when the prices are in the oversold zone, it usually indicates the prices may reverse to an uptrend.

Thus, this indicator can be used in swing trading, as it tells us when the trend is going to reverse.



4. Stochastic Oscillator

The stochastic oscillator is another type of momentum indicator that works almost similar to the RSI. This indicator compares the closing price of a stock to the range of its prices over a particular period.

Like the RSI, the stochastic oscillator also shows the overbought and oversold zone. In this case, 80 is usually considered as overbought while under 20 is oversold. However, it comprises 2 lines, unlike RSI. One shows the current value of the oscillator whereas the other shows three-day MA.




Advantages of Swing Trading :

Less Time: 

Generally, intraday traders have to monitor their positions every minute. However, as Swing Trading has a predetermined horizon, it takes less time to execute and in monitoring the positions.


Short-term profits: 

Swing Trading allows investors to make quick and short-term profits by capturing the bulk of the current trend and market swings. If the trend is upwards, Swing Trading can allow investors to make hefty profits in a short period.

Indicators: 

Swing Trading includes the use of technical analysis and fundamental analysis. As the included indicators are reliable and used by almost all the investors, Swing Trading becomes less risky when compared to other short-term financial instruments.

Flexibility: 

One of the most important advantages of Swing Trading is that it doesn’t legally bind an investor to sell the shares after a specific time. If you are at a loss after your set time horizon, you have the complete freedom and flexibility to hold the shares for a longer time. Under Swing Trading, you do not have to sell your positions at a loss.

Financial goals: 

Swing Trading can allow investors to achieve their short-term financial goals without having to cover the expenses with their savings. Swing Trading provides these investors with a way to invest their savings for a short period and remove their invested amount along with the profits.


Finally, Swing traders use various strategies more experienced traders will use advanced and complex techniques. However, these simple strategies will help you lay a strong foundation. Whether swing trading is your style or not, you can’t deny the importance of learning the various trading techniques to become more surefooted in the stock market. When it comes to stock trading, nothing can beat the power of knowledge.









Wednesday, December 15, 2021

Fundamental Analysis vs Technical Analysis

 




We have seen that, the Indian share market is quite sensitive and volatile, making it lucrative if you time it right!  But, who has ever timed it right? No one in any corner of the world can say they figured out the stock market in the correct direction as it is depending on so many factors with in the country and around the world.

So, what can one get?

Perhaps, just a logical explanation of what could happen next. Depending upon your investment horizon, you could be hopeful that your investments work out in the long run or the short run. 

When you are looking to invest in the longer run, you do fundamental analysis. However, for those who are into trading, be it intraday or within a couple of days, you are looking at more technical analysis.


Meaning & Definition


Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis evaluates stocks by attempting to measure their intrinsic value. Fundamental analysts study everything from the overall economy and industry conditions to the financial strength and management of individual companies. Earnings, expenses, assets, and liabilities all come under scrutiny by fundamental analysts. 

The below picture shows how Fundamental analysis operates in stock buying process.



The Fundamental Analysis assesses all the factors that have the capability of influencing the value of the security (including macroeconomic factors and organization-specific factors), called as fundamentals, which are nothing but the financial statements, management, competition, business concept, etc. It aims at analyzing the economy as a whole, the industry to which it belongs, business environment and the firm itself.


Technical Analysis

Technical analysis differs from fundamental analysis, in that traders attempt to identify opportunities by looking at statistical trends, such as movements in a stock's price and volume. The core assumption is that all known fundamentals are factored into price, thus there is no need to pay close attention to them. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value. Instead, they use stock charts to identify patterns and trends that suggest what a stock will do in the future.


The below picture shows how Technical analysis operates in stock buying process.





The price at which the buyer and seller of the share, decides to settle the deal, is one such value which combines, weighs and expresses all the factors, and is the only value which matters. In other words, technical analysis gives you a clear and comprehensive view of the reason for changes in prices of a security. It is based on the premise that the price of share move in trends, i.e. upward or downward, relying upon the attitude, psychology and emotion of the traders.

Both methods are used for evaluating the stock and prediction of future stock prices. Still, while fundamental analysis focuses on the intrinsic value of the stock, technical analysis focuses on the past trend of the price movement of stock.



 


How to Do Fundamental Analysis of a Stock?

Here are some necessary steps to start a fundamental analysis of a company




Understand the company, its operations, business model, etc.

Use the financial ratios for initial screening.

Closely study the financial reports of the company.

Find the company’s competitors/rivals and study them.

Check the company’s debt and compare it with rivals.

Analyze the company’s prospects.





Tools of Technical Analysis

Charts

Volume charts are one of the most widely used technical analysis tools that show the number of shares bought and sold in the market during a day. You can either use a bar chart or candlestick chart for tech analysis. Used in tandem with trendlines, charts facilitate this exercise to a great extent.

Momentum Indicators

They are statistical figures calculated based on stocks’ price and volume data. During technical analysis, momentum indicators act as supporting tools to charts. One of the objectives of technical analysis is to confirm your views about a stock and momentum indicators help you do it with ease.

Moving Averages

Another technical analysis tool, with moving averages you can eliminate sharp and frequent fluctuations in a stock chart. Note that sometimes there could be sharp movement in stock prices within a short period. This makes it difficult to predict the trend. Moving averages help remove its impact and make the trend more prominent.


Finally, we can conclude that, in the future it is likely that the various forms of analysis will increasingly be combined. The field of quantitative investing has rapidly gained recognition in the asset management industry due to its more scientific approach. Technology now allows fundamental, technical and quantitative analysis to be effectively combined, and tested. Increasingly, behavioral finance and market sentiment are being incorporated in algorithmic trading strategies. And, new technologies like artificial intelligence and big data can also enhance all three forms of analysis.









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